By: Azamat Kabdrash
Turkey has become an object of increased interest in recent times. One of widely discussed issues is the referendum which is held on April 16. It intended to make considerable changes to Turkish Constitution by changing governmental structure from parliamentary to presidential (al Jazeera, 2017). Also, the agitation campaign of the referendum addressed to Turkish diaspora in Germany and Netherlands led to diplomatic tension between these countries and Turkey. Number of officials from different countries also condemned Erdogan’s actions arguing that it undermines democracy in the country.
Recently, the Washington Post published an article written by Seyla Benhabib, professor of political science and philosophy at Yale University, who argued that Turkey is about to transforming to a country ruled by a dictatorship. She claimed that if the referendum passes – which already happened – Erdogan will have supreme authority. The National Assembly will lose its power, whereas the judiciary will be controlled by Erdogan as he will have a power to appoint ministers and judges. The article also claimed that it was failed attempt of military coup in July last year which fostered this process. Here, I want to examine this event from the perspective of the readings that we have covered during the course. Powel (2014), for instance, argued that in post-Cold War period coups positively affect democratization in autocratic countries while being harmful for democracies. He claimed that coups in unstable states can act as a “democratic shock”. However, this hypothesis is applied to successful coups, the ones after which military controls the power for more than 7 days. In the case of coup in Turkey, it failed. So, according to the author it should not have affected seriously the government regime. Nevertheless, Powel, in his later paper written together with Thyne claimed that unsuccessful coups in autocratic states, on the other hand, might cause autocratic leader to purge his opponents. In fact, the referendum held in Turkey after the coup can be a good justification to that theory. The coup attempt was the main reason behind the new changes which would give the president more power. So, does it mean that Erdogan is autocratic leader? The results of the referendum indicates that Turkey is about to turn to executive presidential system. The failed coup was a good impulse to make it happen.
Some sources say that the coup was poorly organized and thus was predestined to fail. Other sources, including government officials, claimed that it was very well organized and almost succeeded. There is a good reason to consider the coup as being well prepared: from the first minutes the military ceased the airport, took the chief commander to hostage, and ceased official TV channel and blocked main streets. Erdogan himself asked people to fight back the military by going out to the streets. Anyway, the failed coup followed by the referendum caused adverse effect to democratization in the country. Such trend is unusual in Post-Cold War period. So, probably additional research should be done to complement studies on coups.
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Turkey has become an object of increased interest in recent times. One of widely discussed issues is the referendum which is held on April 16. It intended to make considerable changes to Turkish Constitution by changing governmental structure from parliamentary to presidential (al Jazeera, 2017). Also, the agitation campaign of the referendum addressed to Turkish diaspora in Germany and Netherlands led to diplomatic tension between these countries and Turkey. Number of officials from different countries also condemned Erdogan’s actions arguing that it undermines democracy in the country.
Recently, the Washington Post published an article written by Seyla Benhabib, professor of political science and philosophy at Yale University, who argued that Turkey is about to transforming to a country ruled by a dictatorship. She claimed that if the referendum passes – which already happened – Erdogan will have supreme authority. The National Assembly will lose its power, whereas the judiciary will be controlled by Erdogan as he will have a power to appoint ministers and judges. The article also claimed that it was failed attempt of military coup in July last year which fostered this process. Here, I want to examine this event from the perspective of the readings that we have covered during the course. Powel (2014), for instance, argued that in post-Cold War period coups positively affect democratization in autocratic countries while being harmful for democracies. He claimed that coups in unstable states can act as a “democratic shock”. However, this hypothesis is applied to successful coups, the ones after which military controls the power for more than 7 days. In the case of coup in Turkey, it failed. So, according to the author it should not have affected seriously the government regime. Nevertheless, Powel, in his later paper written together with Thyne claimed that unsuccessful coups in autocratic states, on the other hand, might cause autocratic leader to purge his opponents. In fact, the referendum held in Turkey after the coup can be a good justification to that theory. The coup attempt was the main reason behind the new changes which would give the president more power. So, does it mean that Erdogan is autocratic leader? The results of the referendum indicates that Turkey is about to turn to executive presidential system. The failed coup was a good impulse to make it happen.
Some sources say that the coup was poorly organized and thus was predestined to fail. Other sources, including government officials, claimed that it was very well organized and almost succeeded. There is a good reason to consider the coup as being well prepared: from the first minutes the military ceased the airport, took the chief commander to hostage, and ceased official TV channel and blocked main streets. Erdogan himself asked people to fight back the military by going out to the streets. Anyway, the failed coup followed by the referendum caused adverse effect to democratization in the country. Such trend is unusual in Post-Cold War period. So, probably additional research should be done to complement studies on coups.
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[1]
Washingtonpost.com, “Turkey is about to take another step toward dictatorship”,
published on March 16, 2017
[2] Powel M. Jonathan, “An assessment of democratic
coup theory”, African Security Review, 23:3, 2014
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