Dauren Koptleuov
On April 17, Recep Taiyp Erdogan announced the victory for his campaign in the National referendum on significant constitutional changes in the Turkish Parliament. Success of the “Yes” campaign granted Erdogan considerable expansion of powers, turning Turkey’s parliamentary system into presidential (Al-Jazeera, 2017). Media reports tell about severe violations and fraudulence during the polls; prosecution of media; threats and various pressure on the supporters of “No” campaign; massive protests on the streets led by outraged crowd (Huffington Post, 2017). Apparently, Erdogan denies it all, and he certainly has his reasons.
After the attempt of coup d’état last summer, Erdogan strives to secure his position and increase the influence of his figure over the state by proposing constitutional changes. It is reported that the results of recent referendum will most probably be followed with more purges, imprisonments, adoption of the death penalty and development of a nuclear weapon (Huffington Post, 2017). In some way or another, the victory of the Erdogan’s campaign will have a significant effect on Turkish civil-military relations as well.
First of all, the results of constitutional referendum will abolish the functioning Turkish legislature with Binali Yildirim (Turkish prime-minister) in the head of it (The Washington Post, 2017). According to Giraldo (2008), the key function of legislature is to work as a check on the power and influence of executive on the defense sector, as well as maintaining “accountability, legitimacy and transparency” of the policy (Giraldo, 2008 as cited in Bruneau and Tollefson, 2008). In the current context of Turkey, the first function lost its purpose and the second one will presumably narrow down to “loyalty to ruling party” and to be promoted by the military police.
Speaking of the military police, Erdogan most probably wants to be aware of everything that happens within the Turkish military in order to avoid repeated coup attempt. This increases the likelihood that Erdogan can create special task force that would either implicitly or explicitly control the military from within. Considering that the percentage of “Yes” and “No” voters is quite levelled: 51.3% against 48.7%, Turkey is seemingly experiencing big division over political preferences. Apart from creation military police and regular purges, Erdogan is likely to enhance paramilitary forces that will secure his safety, even if the coup or insurgency would actually happen. Therefore, it can be said that Turkish military budget will probably also be the subject to change.
Finally, such increase in political powers of a single person may also affect the military doctrine of the state. Erdogan, as a political leader, fits perfectly the term “boss”, described by the Weeks (2014). She states that such authoritarian leaders, that have low possibility of being influenced by other political elites and high level of war-prone behavior, usually have higher possibility of war initiation as well (Weeks, 2014). Taking into consideration recent statements about stopping the fight with ISIS and plans of nuclear weapons (Huffington Post, 2017), it can be assumed that Turkey may start to pose threats to neighbor states as well international community, which may become the primary topic of interest very soon.
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Links and references:
Bruneau, Thomas C., and Scott D. Tollefson. 2008. Who Guards the Guardians and How: Democratic Civil-Military Relations. University of Texas Press.
Weeks, Jessica L. P. 2014. Dictators at War and Peace. Ithaca; London: Cornell University Press.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/turkey-referendum-ak-party-claims-victory-170416162645193.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/turkish-referendum-when-democracy-falls-short-of-a_us_58f23649e4b048372700d8a9
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/17/what-erdogans-narrow-referendum-victory-means-for-turkey/?utm_term=.cb0808f32636
On April 17, Recep Taiyp Erdogan announced the victory for his campaign in the National referendum on significant constitutional changes in the Turkish Parliament. Success of the “Yes” campaign granted Erdogan considerable expansion of powers, turning Turkey’s parliamentary system into presidential (Al-Jazeera, 2017). Media reports tell about severe violations and fraudulence during the polls; prosecution of media; threats and various pressure on the supporters of “No” campaign; massive protests on the streets led by outraged crowd (Huffington Post, 2017). Apparently, Erdogan denies it all, and he certainly has his reasons.
After the attempt of coup d’état last summer, Erdogan strives to secure his position and increase the influence of his figure over the state by proposing constitutional changes. It is reported that the results of recent referendum will most probably be followed with more purges, imprisonments, adoption of the death penalty and development of a nuclear weapon (Huffington Post, 2017). In some way or another, the victory of the Erdogan’s campaign will have a significant effect on Turkish civil-military relations as well.
First of all, the results of constitutional referendum will abolish the functioning Turkish legislature with Binali Yildirim (Turkish prime-minister) in the head of it (The Washington Post, 2017). According to Giraldo (2008), the key function of legislature is to work as a check on the power and influence of executive on the defense sector, as well as maintaining “accountability, legitimacy and transparency” of the policy (Giraldo, 2008 as cited in Bruneau and Tollefson, 2008). In the current context of Turkey, the first function lost its purpose and the second one will presumably narrow down to “loyalty to ruling party” and to be promoted by the military police.
Speaking of the military police, Erdogan most probably wants to be aware of everything that happens within the Turkish military in order to avoid repeated coup attempt. This increases the likelihood that Erdogan can create special task force that would either implicitly or explicitly control the military from within. Considering that the percentage of “Yes” and “No” voters is quite levelled: 51.3% against 48.7%, Turkey is seemingly experiencing big division over political preferences. Apart from creation military police and regular purges, Erdogan is likely to enhance paramilitary forces that will secure his safety, even if the coup or insurgency would actually happen. Therefore, it can be said that Turkish military budget will probably also be the subject to change.
Finally, such increase in political powers of a single person may also affect the military doctrine of the state. Erdogan, as a political leader, fits perfectly the term “boss”, described by the Weeks (2014). She states that such authoritarian leaders, that have low possibility of being influenced by other political elites and high level of war-prone behavior, usually have higher possibility of war initiation as well (Weeks, 2014). Taking into consideration recent statements about stopping the fight with ISIS and plans of nuclear weapons (Huffington Post, 2017), it can be assumed that Turkey may start to pose threats to neighbor states as well international community, which may become the primary topic of interest very soon.
__________________
Links and references:
Bruneau, Thomas C., and Scott D. Tollefson. 2008. Who Guards the Guardians and How: Democratic Civil-Military Relations. University of Texas Press.
Weeks, Jessica L. P. 2014. Dictators at War and Peace. Ithaca; London: Cornell University Press.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/turkey-referendum-ak-party-claims-victory-170416162645193.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/turkish-referendum-when-democracy-falls-short-of-a_us_58f23649e4b048372700d8a9
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/17/what-erdogans-narrow-referendum-victory-means-for-turkey/?utm_term=.cb0808f32636
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